Here’s a look at how the stats compare as Nottingham Forest and Swansea City go head to head at the City Ground on Saturday afternoon.
Earlier this season, the Swans had to battle to a goalless 0-0 draw against Forest but following a change of manager with Martin O’Neill, have they improved or stalled under the new management team?
Firstly, looking at their possession and passing accuracy, which does demonstrate a team’s style – whether they’re possession and passing based like the Swans, or more direct like Birmingham and Millwall.
The graph below shows possession and passing accuracy per game for Nottingham Forest. Following the 14th January confirmation of O’Neill’s appointment, their passing accuracy has dropped well below the 80% mark although that has picked up again in recent weeks.
Total number of attempted passes has also dropped off suggesting a more direct style from O’Neill which wouldn’t be a surprise from the former Ireland coach.
Nottingham Forest – #nffc – how has their possession and passing accuracy changed since the change of manager in mid January? pic.twitter.com/zZMGP3AUJl
— Swans Analytics (@SwansAnalytics) March 29, 2019
More importantly, how does this affect key figures like big chances, expected goals and actual goals scored?
There doesn’t appear to be a significant change since the change of management. After scoring goals in the majority of games in the first half of the season, this started to drop off before O’Neill’s arrival but there’s still a number of games where Forest have scored three or four goals in.
Big Chances, Goals and xG per game #nffc pic.twitter.com/OW2uj0zUUM
— Swans Analytics (@SwansAnalytics) March 29, 2019
Here’s Swansea’s chart as a comparison:
How Swansea’s compares: pic.twitter.com/nSa9t4AQ4f
— Swans Analytics (@SwansAnalytics) March 29, 2019
Elsewhere, let’s also look at the players that help to create and setup those goals. The images below show the “Build-up score” for Nottingham Forest and Swansea City players, with points awarded to first, second and third goal assists. These are the first, second and third passes before a goal is scored.
Joe Lolley and Joao Carvalho are key players for Forest while the likes of Celina, James and even McKay score highly for the Swans. McKay’s high score is surprising given his poor performances this season and little game time.
Nottingham Forest ( and #Swans )- Goal Build-up Points – 1st, 2nd and 3rd assists: 900+minute players included. pic.twitter.com/ONibM0Y4VU
— Swans Analytics (@SwansAnalytics) March 29, 2019
Looking at a comparison within the entire Championship of big chances created vs big chances converted, we can see who creates the best chances and who are the most clinical with them.
The chart below shows big chances created vs taken since January 1st 2019. Nottingham Forest are just short of average for big chances conversion rate and big chances created. Swansea City, meanwhile, are slightly better than the league average for big chances created, but are lacking in terms of clinically taking these big chances. On the chart below, the ideal place to be is at the top right with the likes of Norwich City and Sheffield United.
Championship Big Chances created vs conversion rate updated.
Date is for games in 2019 only#AVFC #BCFC #Rovers #BWFC #BrentfordFC #BristolCity #DCFC #HCAFC #ITFC #LUFC #Boro #MillwallFC #NCFC #NFFC #PNEFC #QPR #ReadingFC #RUFC #SUFC #SWFC #SCFC #Swans #WBA #WAFC pic.twitter.com/cuX6JItJ3n
— Swans Analytics (@SwansAnalytics) March 29, 2019
